Số thuê bao và doanh thu nhà mạng viễn thông Việt Nam

[Ngoc-Anh Vu]

Thuê bao ảo là điều không thể tránh khỏi

Hồi cuối tháng 8, tôi có viết một bài báo ngắn cho ITU về thị trường viễn thông của mình. Cũng loạn lên vì số liệu

Bây giờ thì các số liệu đã cũ rồi, nhưng mà hình như vụ mobifone có kết quả sơ bộ rồi. Bác nào biết thông tin không nhỉ?


Vietnamese telecom market continues its remarkable increase

Ngoc-Anh Vu, Greenwich Consulting

Hyperlink to ITU Daily http://www.itudaily.com/home.asp?articleid=905200803

Due to discontinuous official communication of MIC (Ministry of Information & Communication) over the total telecom subscription base in the previous years and the inconsistency of operators' communications over their client base, only 2007 data communicated by MIC has been used.

Internet Access, especially xDSL broadband, has a real development potential in Vietnam but requires a strong investment and Internet access (1) has a strong potential in Vietnam. There are relatively high landline penetrations all over the country (55%) and penetration rates are over 100% in the big cities of Hochiminh City 104%, Hanoi 141%, Danang 106%, and Haiphong 86%. In other areas, these rates are approximately 46%. Internet subscriptions are increasing sharply in recent years but still reach only 25% of total households.






There are high literacy rates all over the country (95%) with an almost absolute homogeneity between urban (97%) and rural areas (93%). However, further development of internet access, especially Broadband access over xDSL, requires considerable investments in network infrastructure. The majority of Vietnamese households are living in average, small cities and rural areas. The four biggest cities concentrate only 14% of total households and 29% of landline subscriptions.




Similarly, Hochiminh city and Hanoi have more than half of total broadband connections leading to the penetrations of 27% and 35% respectively. These rates are much higher than the rest of the country.




Low income prevents people from buying computers and subscribing to Internet (GDP per capita reached US$833 in 2007 from US$720 in 2006 vis-a-vis an average price of US$500 per PC and average monthly ADSL subscription charge of US$5).

The incumbent telecom operator, VNPT -- Vietnamese National Corporation of Post and Telecommunication, is still dominating the landline and internet market. VNPT maintains its leader position in both landline and Internet markets. VNPT inherits and totally holds legacy network infrastructure and twisted copper pair access network as well as national post-offices and has 79% market share of landline subscriptions as well as 60% market share of xDSL subscription market at EY 2007.

Viettel is emerging as the main challenger of VNPT and is the telecommunication arm of the Ministry of Defense. Viettel entered the landline and internet market by providing domestic long-distance and international VoIP services in 2000 before deploying its access networks to commercialize internet access services in 2002.

Viettel is rapidly becoming the major competitor of VNPT with a market share of 19% in the xDSL broadband market and 5% of landline subscriptions at the end of 2007.

EVN, the telecommunication arm of state-owned EVN (Electricity of Vietnam), holds 15% of landline subscriptions but has not been able to convert these clients into internet subscriptions. In total, EVN Telecom, SPT, Netnam, CMC, FPT etc. hold in more than 20% of xDSL market share but no one has yet to succeed in becoming a major player.

Regulation

There is actually no regulation on partial and total unbundled condition and each ISP deploys its network infrastructure and access network, leading to an inefficient social investment in telecommunication infrastructure. A household hence can use PSTN service over a VNPT line and ADSL service over another Viettel copper pair. There is actually little regulatory condition on the minimum quality of landline and internet services. Internet subscribers usually complain about ADSL services (low available bandwidth, unexpected disconnection, etc) but can not do anything about it because all ISP's have a similar level of service quality.

MIC is planning to add a prefix digit to existing telephone numbers and attribute different digits for different services providers (2). An existing VNPT number in Hochiminh city (city code 8) of 123 456 7 will be changed to 3 123 456 7 as the prefixes 3 and 8 will be attributed to VNPT.

The Vietnamese mobile market is exploding and the up-coming attribution of 3G licenses risks to change the competition environment Mobile subscription base has increased multi-fold in recent years to attain 40 millions in 2007 with penetration rate reaching 47%.(3)

At the end of 2007, Vietnamese mobile market attained 40 millions subscribers from only 5 millions in 2004, with a strong concentration in the two biggest cities, Hanoi and Hochiminh city. Along with Danang, these two cities have over 100% penetration rates which are much higher than the rest of the country.



Vietnamese mobile market is dominated by pre-paid subscriptions (over 90% of market share) with a strong presence of multi pre-paid SIM holders in big cities (Hochiminh city, Hanoi, Danang).




The Vietnamese mobile market is highly competitive with a presence of 7 operators of which Viettel and VNPT (4) hold uncontestable positions.




Having only launched its mobile services in October 2004, Viettel, using GSM/WCDMA technologies, has become the leader in Vietnamese mobile thanks to its aggressive pricing plans. It lost its leading position even though it owns the first two mobile operators in the country.

MobiFone, launched in 1995 in a BCC (Business Corporation Contract) with Comvik (5) as the first GSM operator and it continues to grow steadily as it prepares to be listed in 2008.

Making use of the experiences in its corporation with Comvik, VNPT launched its own mobile operator, Vinaphone in 1997.and is believed to be the second operator after Viettel at the end of 2007. According to VNPT announcements, Vinaphone will be listed in 2009.

Created in Jan 2003 in a BCC between SPT (Saigon (6) Post & Telecommunication), Korean SK Telecom and LG Electronics, S-Telecom provides mobile services using CDMA 2000 -- 1x technology. However, S-Telecom failed to follow market dynamics and ended 2007 in fourth place with a modest market share of 8%. EVN Telecom launched its mobile service in June 2006 and this operator also uses CDMA technology and has not yet has a considerable impact on the mobile market. Recently, EVN's investments in its telecom arm is being limited following government plans to restrict the investments of EVN in businesses other than electricity. HT Mobile joined market in January 2007 and decided to migrate from CDMA network to a GSM network early 2008 due to unfavourable business conditions. GTel Mobile, a Joint-venture between GTel (the telecommunication arm of Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security) and the Russian VimpelCom, has obtained a GSM license in November 2007 but not launched its service yet.

MIC is planning to attribute 3G licenses at the end 2008. Only four licenses will be given out this time. Both GSM/WCDMA and CDMA 2000 -- 1x operators can apply for these licenses. The details of application conditions are not communicated yet by MIC. However, MIC officials have said that any operator wishing to obtain a 3G license has to meet 4 "general conditions":

1. Financial capability to afford network infrastructure investments which are estimated as high as US$ 2 billion.
   
2. Technical competencies to deploy network rapidly across the whole country to reach a large party of population.
   
3. Sustainable business plan, including the capacity to organize distribution systems and propose affordable price for customers.
   
4. Strong commitment to train employees in order to build a pool of high-skilled staffs.

Several WiMAX pilots programs were conducted in Vietnam in order to find an alternative Internet access solution for both urban and rural areas

In 2006, MPT, then Ministry of Post & Telecommunication, allowed different players (Viettel, VTC, VDC, and FPT Telecom) to realize fixed WiMAX pilots programs in order to select 3 official services providers. However, MIC decided to postpone its decision due to unfavorable market conditions (CPE still expensive, delay in 3G license attribution, creation of the new MIC from MPT and Ministry of Culture & Information).

In March 2008, MIC gave FPT Telecom, EVN Telecom, Viettel and VNPT permission to conduct Mobile WiMAX pilot programs in different regions, including the two biggest cities Hanoi and Hochiminh city.

In the mean time, MIC is preparing for the attribution of WiMAX licenses. Not any date or detailed conditions have been communicated but it is said that MIC will first concentrate on the attribution of 3G licenses before commencing the WiMAX dossiers.

VNPT has just launched its first satellite

In April 2008, VNPT has just launched the first national satellite Vinasat-1 which is built by Lockheed Martin. It is designed for a minimum service life of 15 years and will be located at orbital slot 132 degrees east

It features 12 operating Ku Band transponders and 8 C-Band primary transponders providing coverage over Vietnam, Southeast Asia, India, Japan and Australia.

The satellite system is expected to improve the nation's communication networks infrastructure by removing dependence on ground networks and allowing 100% of Vietnam's rural communities to be equipped with telephones and televisions.

International connections enhanced

After several severe disconnections with international connections due to natural and human issues (damaged submarine cables due to earth wake in East Asia in December 2006, stolen optical fiber cable in March 2007, etc.), Vietnamese operators have enhanced and diversified their international connections. Its international bandwidth has increased 6-fold between January 2006 and June 2008 to meet highly increasing demand of foreign investment in ICT industry.

Furthermore, various operators are co-investing in the development of pan-Asia and pan-Pacific submarine cables In April 2007, EVN joined VSNL International (now owned by Tata Communication) In September 2007, SPT, Viettel and VNPT joined Alcatel-Lucent and NEC's deployment of the Asia America Gateway (AAG), the first direct Terabit submarine cable network in a contract worth US$200 million.

Vietnam's WTO accession

By joining WTO, Vietnam allows telecom joint ventures with foreign partners to provide telecom services related to network infrastructure such as telephone services, packet-switched data transmission services, circuit-switched data transmission services, telex services, telegraph services, facsimile services and private leased circuit services.

For non facilities-based services, foreign capital contribution must not exceed 51% of joint venture's capital and this limit will rise to 65% three years after the accession (i.e. January 2010). For facilities-based services, joint ventures with telecommunications service suppliers duly licensed in Vietnam will be allowed. Foreign capital contribution can not exceed 49% of legal capital as 51% gives management control of the joint venture.

Greenwich Consulting (www.greenwich-consulting.com), strategy and management consultancy specialises in telecom and media.

Ngoc-Anh Vu

Notes:

1- Internet access in Vietnam is strongly based on twisted copper pair access networks. Alternative solutions such as co-axial cables have less than 2% of market share.

2- The following prefixes will be attributed to operators: 2 for EVN, 3 and 8 for VNPT, 4 for VTC, 5 for SPT, 6 for Viettel, 7 for FPT

3- Due to a strong presence of multi pre-paid SIM holders, the effective penetration is much lower

4- VNPT hold two mobile operators, MobiFone and Vinaphone

5- This BCC ended in 2005. Afterwards, VNPT holds 100% of MobiFone.

6- Saigon is the former name of Hochiminh city.

[trandat]

• Tổng số thuê bao điện thaọi đạt 82.25 triệu thuê bao

Tính đến hết năm 2008 theo thống kê của bộ TT&TT, tổng số thuê bao tại VN đạt 82.25 triệu thuê bao, tăng 100% so với năm 2007. Như vậy mật độ điện thoại trên 100 dân đã đạt 97.5 máy/100 dân. Xem ảnh lớn

Biểu đồ 1: Sự phát triển thuê bao điện thoại theo năm (nguồn: MIC)

• Tổng số thuê bao ADSL đạt 2.13 triệu thuê bao

Theo VNNIC, tính đến hết năm 2008, tổng số thuê bao ADSL đạt 2.13 triệu thuê bao phục vụ trên 20 triệu người sử dụng, trong đó VNPT là đơn vị chiếm thị phần chi phối với trên 1.3 triệu thuê bao.
Xem ảnh lớn

Biều đồ 2: Thị phần thuê bao ADSL giữa các nhà cung cấp tại VN năm 2008 (Nguồn VNNIC)

Cũng theo VNNIC, tính đến hết tháng 11/2008, đã có hơn 90.000 tên miền .vn được đăng ký và tổng băng thông kết nối quốc tế đạt 36.737 Mbps
Xem ảnh lớn

Bảng: Thống kê chi tiết băng thông và số người sử dụng Internet tại VN đến hết 11/2008 (Nguồn VNNIC)

• Doanh thu toàn ngành đạt ~ 5,5 tỉ USD

Trong năm 2008 tuy kinh tế toàn cầu suy thoái song ngành viễn thông VN vẫn đạt những kết quả rất khả quan, góp phần bình ổn kinh tế vĩ mô. Năm 2008, doanh thu toàn ngành viễn thông đạt ~5,5 tỷ USD, trong đó doanh thu VNPT đạt trên 53.100 tỷ đồng (~3 tỷ USD) , tăng 17,5% so với năm 2007 (45.300 tỷ đồng), nộp ngân sách nhà nước 6850 tỷ đồng.
Xem ảnh lớn

Biểu đồ 3: Doanh thu của các doanh nghiệp viễn thông năm 2008 so với năm 2007

(Theo XHTT)

Để xem biểu đồ các bác xem theo Link: http://xahoithongtin.com.vn/home/206...g-vn-2008.html

Phải nói là doanh thu khá ấn tượng các bác nhẻ.

[Hồ sơ]

Các bác có báo cáo tổng kết của mấy doanh nghiệp trong ngành không nhẻ, cho tớ xin với, có gì PM nhá

[dtn0hut]

Báo cáo tổng kết khó tin lắm. Bao giờ chẳng năm nay cao hơn năm trước. Số liệu public chưa chắc đã chẩn. Ngoài ra, các doanh nghiệp còn đang chạy đua để có GP 3G nên chưa biết được

[ht_fet]

Nói chung báo cáo thì năm nào cũng có, nhưng không có tổ chức nào chứng thực báo cáo đó:|

[trandat]

Nói chung báo cáo thì năm nào cũng có, nhưng không có tổ chức nào chứng thực báo cáo đó:|

uhm, sau khi tổng kết năm thì doanh thu VNPT là ~55.000 tỉ VNĐ, có khác so với số liệu bài viết trên 1 chút. Các số liệu khác em cũng ko dám nói liều song chắc nó cũng lệch so với số liệu trên 1 tỉ lệ nhất định nào đó. Nên em nghĩ tỉ lệ % thì có thể tin tưởng được.

[dtvt2006]

Số liệu thuê bao và doanh thu của ngành viễn thông VN 2008, mọi người có thể tham khảo tại đây.

[trandat]

Số liệu thuê bao và doanh thu của ngành viễn thông VN 2008, mọi người có thể tham khảo tại đây.

Đưa đúng ngay cái bài tớ đưa ở post 1. . Làm tớ hí hửng vào xem.

[dtvt2006]

Đưa đúng ngay cái bài tớ đưa ở post 1. . Làm tớ hí hửng vào xem.

Uh, cậu nói tớ mới để ý là cậu đã post rồi. Một số trường hợp tớ không để ý lắm. Sorry cậu nhé

[VnSat]

Sản lượng thoại quốc tế năm nay của Vê Nờ Pê Tê tăng trưởng ở mức kỷ lục 100%. Nhờ vậy nên nhà cháu năm nay đón Tết cũng ấm hơn một tý